After a very disappointing week three, I got back on track last week going 10-6. I swept the afternoon games, highlighted by my pick of the Seahawks (+4.5). Now that I got that bragging out of my system, I have to admit where I was wrong. And I was dead wrong on the Bengals and Titans. My apologies to both teams, I will not pick against you this week.
Philadelphia Eagles at BUFFALO BILLS (+2.5)
Both teams have great offenses and questionable defenses. This game will be a shootout. The Eagles will get on top early, but if they can blow fourth quarter leads to Matt Ryan, Eli Manning and Alex Smith in consecutive weeks, they can do it again with Ryan Fitzpatrick.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Holy A.J. Green! The rookie receiver is on pace for 1248 yards on 76 catches with eight touchdowns. And with Cedric Benson still managing to avoid his suspension, the Bengals offense will be able to do enough to win this game.
TENNESSEE TITANS (+7.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Titans are a surprisingly good team this year. They’re 3-1 and have the 8th ranked passing offense, 7th ranked passing defense and 8th ranked rushing defense. The Titans will not only cover the spread, but also win this game outright. Don’t be surprised to see Chris Johnson have a big game against the James Harrison-less Steelers defense.
Kansas City Chiefs at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5)
Heads, I take the Chiefs. Tails, I take the Colts. It was tails.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (+6.5) at Houston Texans
Oakland has the number one rushing offense in the NFL. Houston is number four. Oakland has the number 29 rushing defense in the NFL. Houston is number 18. Big days for both Arian Foster and Darren McFadden, but the Texans won’t blow out the Raiders after losing Andre Johnson.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings lost to the Chiefs. The same Chiefs team that my coin told me not to take against the Colts. By that logic, I should go with the Cardinals.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-5.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Saints have won each of their past three games by at least seven points. But Cam Newton worries me. This game screams “back door cover,” because we all know that Newton will keep throwing when they’re losing in the fourth quarter. I can see Cam Newton getting the ball when the Saints are leading 31-20 with two minutes left in the game. Newton will then lead his team down to score a meaningless touchdown that puts the score at 31-27 with only seconds left. Knowing the risk involved, I’m still taking the Saints.
Seattle Seahawks at NEW YORK GIANTS (-9.5)
Everyone knows the Seahawks are a terrible road team. They have been outscored 57-17 in their two road games this season. If that alone doesn’t convince you to take the Giants, think back to last season when the Giants showed up in Seattle and beat the Seahawks 41-7.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+1.5) at San Francisco 49ers
I trust Josh Freeman more than Alex Smith. It’s that simple.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-4.5) at Denver Broncos
Somehow the Chargers are 3-1 while Philip Rivers has been disappointing fantasy football owners all across the country. I’d bet that Rivers figures it out this week against a defense that just allowed more than 400 yards and six total touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers.
NEW YORK JETS (+9.5) at New England Patriots
Last week, the Patriots held the Raiders to 19 points. It was the first time this season that New England kept an opponent under 20 points. However, the Patriots defense managed to get worse as they lost Jerod Mayo for the next six weeks. Even Mark Sanchez would be able to keep this game close.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons
If the Atlanta defense allowed Tarvaris Jackson to throw for 300+ yards on them, what is Aaron Rodgers going to do?
Chicago Bears at DETROIT LIONS (-5.5)
The Bears are just 1-3 against the spread this year, while the Lions are 3-1. Sure, the Lions need to keep their eye on Julius Peppers, but after getting embarrassed by Jared Allen in week three, they didn’t allow a sack to the Cowboys defense last week. Also, it is important to note that the Bears have allowed the fourth most passing yards so far this season. Look for Megatron to have some fun on Monday night.